What Is the Role of Biodiversity in Mediating the Effects of Climate Change on New Zealand’s Future Agroecosystems?

Abstract

Climate change will have far-reaching negative impacts on all aspects of Earth’s state and functions, including ongoing biodiversity decline and threats to agricultural production. These effects will be dependent on geographic location; for example, parts of New Zealand are predicted to have increased flooding, drought and wildfires, depending on the local environmental context. Effects of climate change on agricultural production will be both direct, such as crop losses due to flooding, and indirect, such as increased invasive pest insect and weed pressure on horticultural production or decline in water capture capacity in pastoral South Island High Country tussock grasslands due to increased fire frequency combined with grazing. It is crucial to understand the complex, interactive effects of climate change on agroecosystems, mediated by biodiversity, if human interventions, such as land management, are to be developed and effectively applied to mitigate negative consequences. Even better is if those interventions can be used to address the biodiversity crisis. Nature-based Solutions is a framework that offers such solutions; however, improved scientific understanding of these interacting processes within agroecosystems is required at multiple temporal and spatial scales to justify sector investment for changes in agricultural land management practices that enhance production and native biodiversity.