A System Dynamics Framework for Whole Life Costing in Seismic and Climate-Sensitive Residential Construction in New Zealand

Abstract

Purpose This study develops a whole life costing (WLC) framework tailored to New Zealand's residential construction sector, addressing key region-specific challenges such as seismic risks, climate variability, and evolving regulatory conditions.

Design/methodology/approach A systematic literature review (SLR) was conducted alongside 22 semi-structured expert interviews to identify critical cost drivers influencing WLC in residential buildings. The study applies system dynamics (SD) methodology, using causal loop diagrams (CLDs) and degree centrality analysis to model complex interdependencies and feedback loops among these cost drivers.

Findings The study identifies 73 key cost drivers across technical, environmental, economic, regulatory and behavioural domains. These drivers are structured into a hierarchical framework that models their interactions across the acquisition, operational and end-of-life phases of residential buildings. The findings emphasise the importance of seismic resilience, energy efficiency, material durability and climate-related impacts in long-term cost planning for residential buildings in New Zealand.

Research limitations/implications The framework is based on expert interviews and literature review, which may limit the scope of identified factors. The research is conceptual in nature, and empirical validation of the framework is needed to confirm its practical applicability across different residential projects. Future research could include testing the framework in real-world settings or extending it to other geographical contexts.

Practical implications The proposed WLC framework provides policymakers, developers and architects with a structured tool for evaluating long-term costs and benefits of residential construction projects. It integrates local environmental, economic and regulatory factors, thus promoting sustainable design and more informed decision-making throughout the construction lifecycle. The framework can guide policy development, building regulations and sustainable construction practices in New Zealand and similar regions.

Social implications The framework promotes long-term affordability, quality and resilience in residential buildings, supporting improved public health, energy equity and disaster preparedness, critical issues for vulnerable communities affected by housing and environmental instability.

Originality/value This study presents the first context-specific WLC framework for New Zealand's residential construction sector. Unlike global models, it incorporates critical regional factors, such as seismic and climate risks, to offer a more comprehensive and practical tool for enhancing the economic sustainability of residential buildings. The framework's innovative use of system dynamics and causal loop modelling offers new insights into lifecycle cost estimation and long-term sustainability in construction.