Projection of Rainfall Distribution Map Under the Impact of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study of Penang Island, Malaysia

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aut.relation.issue2
aut.relation.journalMalaysian Journal of Society and Space
aut.relation.volume20
dc.contributor.authorMohamed Yusof, Mohamed Khatif Tawaf
dc.contributor.authorA Rashid, Ahmad Safuan
dc.contributor.authorMohd Apandi, Nazirah
dc.contributor.authorAbdul Khanan, Mohd Faisal
dc.contributor.authorAbdul Rahman, Muhammad Zulkarnain
dc.contributor.authorKalatehjari, Roohollah
dc.contributor.authorIsmail, Afiqah
dc.contributor.authorMohd Salleh, Mohd Radhie
dc.date.accessioned2024-06-27T02:18:01Z
dc.date.available2024-06-27T02:18:01Z
dc.date.issued2024-05-31
dc.description.abstractMalaysia experiences abundant rainfall, which can potentially lead to geo-hydrological disasters. Therefore, studying the effect of climate change on rainfall events is crucial. The General Circulation Model (GCM) is a well-accepted terrestrial-scale climate simulation approach widely employed by climate scientists and researchers worldwide. However, despite its comprehensive approach, GCM lacks in necessary precision at the local level due to its coarse resolution. Consequently, employing statistical downscaling techniques becomes essential for achieving accurate simulations at the local scale. Notably, there is a scarcity of localized studies focusing on the climate change effect, specifically in Penang Island. Penang Island was selected as the study area due to its high urbanization rate and frequent geo-hydrological disasters. The current study assessed the impact of climate change on mean annual rainfall (MAR) distribution using a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). SDSM is calibrated and validated, and rainfall spatial distribution maps are generated through Kriging and IDW methods for the observed (1990-2019) and future (2070-2099) periods. The results indicate that under both RCPs, MAR projections increased. RCP8.5 (14.93%) shows a higher effect, where the increment percentage is almost double that of RCP4.5 (8.6%). The model displays strong correlation and performance, with a disparity of 1.24% to 11.73%, averaging 7.50%, between observed and modelled results. The outcomes of this research hold significant implications for local authorities, providing valuable insights to enhance preparedness and response strategies concerning the evolving climate conditions, particularly in the context of geo-hydrological hazards, environmental concerns, and water security in Penang Island. However, it is crucial to acknowledge the study's limitation, considering only two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Future research efforts should involve a broader spectrum of climate scenarios to yield a more comprehensive understanding of climate change's multifaceted and unpredictable nature for enhanced robustness of future climate-related strategies and policies.
dc.identifier.citationMalaysian Journal of Society and Space, ISSN: 2180-2491 (Print); 2682-7727 (Online), Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM Press), 20(2). doi: 10.17576/geo-2024-2002-01
dc.identifier.doi10.17576/geo-2024-2002-01
dc.identifier.issn2180-2491
dc.identifier.issn2682-7727
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10292/17712
dc.publisherPenerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM Press)
dc.relation.urihttps://ejournal.ukm.my/gmjss/article/view/67540
dc.rightsThis journal provides immediate open access to its content on the principle that making research freely available to the public supports a greater global exchange of knowledge.
dc.rights.accessrightsOpenAccess
dc.subject4406 Human Geography
dc.subject44 Human Society
dc.subject13 Climate Action
dc.subject1604 Human Geography
dc.subject4406 Human geography
dc.titleProjection of Rainfall Distribution Map Under the Impact of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study of Penang Island, Malaysia
dc.typeJournal Article
pubs.elements-id558467
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