Summer Outdoor Thermal Risk Area Mapping on a University Campus in Auckland, New Zealand

Abstract

Outdoor thermal risks in urban areas are increasingly critical due to climate change and urbanization. This study identifies high-risk areas at Auckland University of Technology, New Zealand, using a multi-layered approach integrating hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Locations with Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) exceeding 23°C were analyzed alongside user density and survey-based vulnerability assessments, pinpointing two high-risk zones. Future projections for 2050 and 2080 (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios) indicate rising PET levels, amplifying thermal discomfort. Mitigation strategies, including green walls and tree planting, demonstrated PET reductions of 2°C and 3°C, respectively, under current conditions. These findings underscore the critical role of greenery in enhancing outdoor thermal comfort and resilience. The study’s replicable methodology offers urban planners a practical framework for addressing thermal risks and adapting outdoor spaces to climate change impacts, fostering urban livability.