Simulation of Phased Alerting of Community First Responders for Cardiac Arrest

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Community First Responders (CFRs) are commonly used for out-of-hospital cardiac arrests, and advanced systems send so-called phased alerts: notifications with built-in time delays. The policy that defines these delays affects both response times and volunteer fatigue. METHODS: We compare alert policies by Monte Carlo Simulation, estimating patient survival, coverage, number of alerts and redundant CFR arrivals. In the simulation, acceptance probabilities and response delays are bootstrapped from 29,307 rows of historical data covering all GoodSAM alerts in New Zealand between 1-12-2017 and 30-11-2020. We simulate distances between the patient and CFRs by assuming that CFRs are located uniformly at random in a 1-km circle around the patient, for different CFR densities. Our simulated CFRs travel with a distance-dependent speed that was estimated by linear regression on observed speeds among those responders in the above-mentioned data set that eventually reached the patient. RESULTS: The alerting policy has a large impact on the four metrics above, and the best choice depends on volunteer density. For each volunteer density, we are able to identify a policy that improves GoodSAM New Zealand's current policy on all four metrics. For example, when there are 30 volunteers within 1 km from the patient, sending out alerts to 7 volunteers and replacing each volunteer that rejects by a new one, is expected to save 10 additional lives per year compared to the current policy, without increasing volunteer fatigue. Our results also shed light on polices that would improve one metric while worsening another, for example, when there are 10 volunteers within 1 km from the patient, dispatching them all immediately increases our survival estimate by 11% compared to the current policy, with the downside of also increasing the redundant arrivals by 137%. CONCLUSIONS: Monte Carlo simulation can help CFR system managers identify a good policy before implementing it in practice. We recommend balancing survival and volunteer fatigue, aiming to ultimately further improve a CFR system's effectiveness.