Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Ecological Risk Factors of High Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N1) in Canadian Wildlife: A One Health Surveillance Analysis
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Fatoyinbo, Hammed Olawale
Jeong, Hoyeon
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Elsevier BV
Abstract
High pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) has expanded geographically and ecologically, affecting wild birds, mammalian wildlife, domestic animals, and humans. Wildlife surveillance provides critical early warning for One Health preparedness, yet national-scale analyses integrating host ecology, spatial patterns, seasonality, viral lineage, and risk factors remain limited. This study analysed Canadian wildlife HPAI A(H5N1) surveillance records from 2022 to 2026 to characterise spatiotemporal dynamics and identify factors associated with detection counts. A retrospective analysis of 2657 detections across 13 provinces and territories was conducted using descriptive epidemiology, spatial clustering methods, and Negative Binomial mixed models. Detections were predominantly avian (93.3%), with waterfowl and raptors as the major host groups, while mammals accounted for a smaller but epidemiologically important proportion (6.7%). Detection burden was highest in 2022, with increased activity in autumn and spring. Ontario, Alberta, and British Columbia were identified as major hotspots, with evidence of local clustering in parts of the Prairie region. Reassortant Eurasian–North American lineages dominated detections (80.8%) and were strongly associated with higher detection counts. Modelling results identified year, season, and lineage as key predictors. These findings support risk-based One Health surveillance prioritising high-burden regions, migration-associated periods, key avian host groups, reassortant viral lineages, and continued monitoring of mammalian wildlife.
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06 Biological Sciences, 07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences, 11 Medical and Health Sciences, Immunology, 3009 Veterinary sciences, 3107 Microbiology, 3204 Immunology, High pathogenic avian influenza, H5N1, One Health, Wildlife surveillance, Spatiotemporal epidemiology, Risk factors
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Comparative Immunology, Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, ISSN: 0147-9571 (Print), Elsevier BV, 102499-102499. doi: 10.1016/j.cimid.2026.102499
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Creative Commons Attribution CC-BY 4.0
© 2026 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Open access.
© 2026 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Open access.
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Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Creative Commons Attribution CC-BY 4.0