Hourly global solar irradiation forecasting for New Zealand

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aut.relation.endpage1408
aut.relation.startpage1398
aut.researcherLie, Tek
dc.contributor.authorAhmad, Aen_NZ
dc.contributor.authorAnderson, TNen_NZ
dc.contributor.authorLie, Ten_NZ
dc.date.accessioned2016-01-27T23:08:29Z
dc.date.available2016-01-27T23:08:29Z
dc.date.copyright2015-12-09en_NZ
dc.date.issued2015-12-09en_NZ
dc.description.abstractWith the growing use of solar thermal energy systems and small scale photovoltaic power generation by domestic users, there is increasing need to develop intelligent controllers that allow these users to efficiently manage the energy generated by these systems. Ideally these intelligent controllers will be able to forecast the availability and magnitude of the solar resource to plan in advance for periods when the solar irradiance magnitude is small or unavailable. In addition, the method used to provide this forecast needs to be adaptable to a range of timescales and locations. With this in mind, this study examined the possibility of providing a 24-h ahead forecast of hourly global solar irradiation in New Zealand using several approaches but with particular reference to nonlinear autoregressive recurrent neural networks with exogenous inputs (NARX). Hourly time series data for nine historic weather variables recorded over a three year period was used to train and test the forecasting methods for New Zealand’s largest city, Auckland. Results from forecasts based on the NARX were compared with an artificial neural network (ANN) based Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) method, a statistical approach using auto regressive moving average (ARMA) and a reference persistence approach. Predicted values of hourly global solar irradiation were compared with the measured values, and it was found that the root mean squared error (RMSE) was 0.243 MJ/m2 for the NARX method as compared to 0.484 MJ/m2, 0.315 MJ/m2 and 0.514 MJ/m2 for the MLP, ARMA and persistence approaches respectively. Subsequently the NARX approach was used to forecast global solar irradiation for other major cities across New Zealand. The results demonstrate the ability of the NARX approach to forecast irradiation values at a later time and across a number of different locations. As such it is foreseeable that such an approach could serve as the basis of a forecasting system in future intelligent controllers.
dc.identifier.citationSolar Energy. Volume 122, December 2015, Pages 1398–1408en_NZ
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.solener.2015.10.055
dc.identifier.issn0038-092Xen_NZ
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10292/9433
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.rightsCopyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in (see Citation). Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. The definitive version was published in (see Citation). The original publication is available at (see Publisher's Version).
dc.rights.accessrightsOpenAccessen_NZ
dc.subjectSolar irradiation forecasting; NARX ANN; Multilayer Perceptron; Auto regressive moving average
dc.titleHourly global solar irradiation forecasting for New Zealanden_NZ
dc.typeJournal Article
pubs.elements-id194139
pubs.organisational-data/AUT
pubs.organisational-data/AUT/Design & Creative Technologies
pubs.organisational-data/AUT/Design & Creative Technologies/School of Engineering
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