Forecasting Half-Hourly Electricity Prices Using a Mixed-Frequency Structural VAR Framework

Abstract

Electricity price forecasting has been a topic of significant interest since the deregulation of electricity markets worldwide. The New Zealand electricity market is run primarily on renewable fuels, and so weather metrics have a significant impact on electricity price and volatility. In this paper, we employ a mixed-frequency vector autoregression (MF-VAR) framework where we propose a VAR specification to the reverse unrestricted mixed-data sampling (RU-MIDAS) model, called RU-MIDAS-VAR, to provide point forecasts of half-hourly electricity prices using several weather variables and electricity demand. A key focus of this study is the use of variational Bayes as an estimation technique and its comparison with other well-known Bayesian estimation methods. We separate forecasts for peak and off-peak periods in a day since we are primarily concerned with forecasts for peak periods. Our forecasts, which include peak and off-peak data, show that weather variables and demand as regressors can replicate some key characteristics of electricity prices. We also find the MF-VAR and RU-MIDAS-VAR models achieve similar forecast results. Using the LASSO, adaptive LASSO, and random subspace regression as dimension-reduction and variable selection methods helps to improve forecasts where random subspace methods perform well for large parameter sets while the LASSO significantly improves our forecasting results in all scenarios.