Background: Traumatic brain injury is conventionally categorised as mild, moderate, or severe on the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS). Recently developed biomarkers can provide more objective and nuanced measures of the extent of brain injury.

Methods: Exposure–response relationships were investigated in 2479 patients aged ≥16 enrolled in the Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury (CENTER-TBI) prospective observational cohort study. Neurofilament protein-light (NFL), ubiquitin carboxy-terminal hydrolase L1 (UCH-L1), and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) were assayed from serum sampled in the first 24 h; concentrations were divided into quintiles within GCS severity groups. Relationships with the Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended were examined using modified Poisson regression including age, sex, major extracranial injury, time to sample, and log biomarker concentration as covariates.

Findings: Within severity groups there were associations between biomarkers and outcomes after adjustment for covariates: GCS 13–15 and negative CT imaging (relative risks [RRs] from 1.28 to 3.72), GCS 13–15 and positive CT (1.21–2.81), GCS 9–12 (1.16–2.02), GCS 3–8 (1.09–1.94). RRs were associated with clinically important differences in expectations of prognosis. In patients with GCS 3 (RRs 1.51–1.80) percentages of unfavourable outcome were 37–51% in the lowest quintiles of biomarker levels and reached 90–94% in the highest quintiles. Similarly, for GCS 15 (RRs 1.83–3.79), the percentages were 2–4% and 19–28% in the lowest and highest biomarker quintiles, respectively.

Interpretation: Conventional TBI severity classification is inadequate and underestimates heterogeneity of brain injury and associated outcomes. The adoption of circulating biomarkers can add to clinical assessment of injury severity. Funding: European Union 7th Framework program (EC grant 602150), Hannelore Kohl Stiftung, One Mind, Integra LifeSciences, Neuro-Trauma Sciences, NIHR Rosetrees Trust.