Do You Know That I Know That You Know…? Higher-Order Beliefs in Survey Data

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aut.filerelease.date2023-01-30
aut.relation.endpage1446
aut.relation.issue3en_NZ
aut.relation.journalThe Quarterly Journal of Economicsen_NZ
aut.relation.pages59
aut.relation.startpage1387
aut.relation.volume136en_NZ
aut.researcherKumar, Saten
dc.contributor.authorKumar, Sen_NZ
dc.contributor.authorCoibion, Oen_NZ
dc.contributor.authorGorodnichenko, Yen_NZ
dc.contributor.authorRyngaert, Jen_NZ
dc.date.accessioned2021-10-14T02:36:10Z
dc.date.available2021-10-14T02:36:10Z
dc.date.copyright2021-01-30en_NZ
dc.date.issued2021-01-30en_NZ
dc.description.abstractWe implement a new survey of firms, focusing on their higher-order macroeconomic expectations. The survey provides a novel set of stylized facts regarding the relationship between first-order and higher-order expectations of economic agents, including how they adjust their beliefs in response to a variety of information treatments. We show how these facts can be used to calibrate key parameters of noisy-information models with infinite regress as well as to test predictions made by this class of models. We also consider a range of extensions to the basic noisy-information model that can potentially better reconcile theory and empirics. Although some extensions like level-k thinking are unsuccessful, incorporating heterogeneous long-run priors can address the empirical shortcomings of the basic noisy-information model.
dc.identifier.citationThe Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 136, Issue 3, August 2021, Pages 1387–1446, https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjab005
dc.identifier.doi10.1093/qje/qjab005en_NZ
dc.identifier.issn0033-5533en_NZ
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10292/14578
dc.publisherOxford University Press (OUP)en_NZ
dc.relation.urihttps://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/136/3/1387/6124641
dc.rights© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of President and Fellows of Harvard College. This article is published and distributed under the terms of the Oxford University Press, Standard Journals Publication Model (https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model)
dc.rights.accessrightsOpenAccessen_NZ
dc.subjectSurvey; Inflation expectations; Firms; Managers
dc.titleDo You Know That I Know That You Know…? Higher-Order Beliefs in Survey Dataen_NZ
dc.typeJournal Article
pubs.elements-id397579
pubs.organisational-data/AUT
pubs.organisational-data/AUT/Business School Accreditation
pubs.organisational-data/AUT/Business School Accreditation/2020
pubs.organisational-data/AUT/Faculty of Business, Economics and Law
pubs.organisational-data/AUT/Faculty of Business, Economics and Law/Business School
pubs.organisational-data/AUT/Faculty of Business, Economics and Law/Business School/Auckland Centre for Financial Research
pubs.organisational-data/AUT/Faculty of Business, Economics and Law/School of Economics
pubs.organisational-data/AUT/PBRF
pubs.organisational-data/AUT/PBRF/PBRF Business Economics and Law
pubs.organisational-data/AUT/PBRF/PBRF Business Economics and Law/Faculty Review Team PBRF 2018
pubs.organisational-data/AUT/PBRF/PBRF Business Economics and Law/School of Economics PBRF 2018
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