Searching for a Just Transition: Micro-Level Employment Impacts of Climate Policies
Date
Authors
Winchester, Niven
Riggs, Lynn
Mitchell, Livvy
White, Dominic
Supervisor
Item type
Journal Article
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Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Abstract
We develop and apply a modelling framework to estimate the micro-level employment impacts of climate policies in Aotearoa New Zealand. Our approach links an economy-wide model with a micro simulation module to calculate employment changes for different groups of the population across several dimensions (and combinations of dimensions), including sectoral, geospatial, demographic, and socio-economic categories. By simulating the linked modelling framework out to 2050 for proposed climate policies, we estimate which industries, workers, and jobs are expected to be most affected by these policies. Industries that experience the largest negative employment impacts include coal mining, oil and gas extraction, and some manufacturing activities. Reflecting the deployment of labour-intensive abatement options, some agriculture industries experience the largest employment increases. Workers that incur a disproportionate share of the transition are older, have lower levels of education, or are Māori. Employment transitions are also concentrated in certain regions. The results and modelling tools can help the New Zealand government formulate policies to ensure a ‘just transition’ to a low carbon future.Description
Keywords
38 Economics, 3801 Applied Economics, 13 Climate Action, 8 Decent Work and Economic Growth, 0906 Electrical and Electronic Engineering, 0913 Mechanical Engineering, 1402 Applied Economics, Energy, 3502 Banking, finance and investment, 3801 Applied economics, 3802 Econometrics
Source
Energy Economics, ISSN: 0140-9883 (Print), Elsevier BV, 141, 108086-108086. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108086
Publisher's version
Rights statement
© 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/bync-nd/4.0/).