Integrate the GM(1,1) and Verhulst models to predict software stage effort

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aut.researcherMacDonell, Stephen Gerard
dc.contributor.authorWang, Y
dc.contributor.authorSong, QB
dc.contributor.authorMacDonell, S
dc.contributor.authorShepperd, M
dc.contributor.authorShen, JY
dc.date.accessioned2011-10-03T00:51:33Z
dc.date.available2011-10-03T00:51:33Z
dc.date.copyright2009-11-01
dc.date.issued2009-11-01
dc.description.abstractSoftware effort prediction clearly plays a crucial role in software project management. In keeping with more dynamic approaches to software development, it is not sufficient to only predict the whole-project effort at an early stage. Rather, the project manager must also dynamically predict the effort of different stages or activities during the software development process. This can assist the project manager to reestimate effort and adjust the project plan, thus avoiding effort or schedule overruns. This paper presents a method for software physical time stage-effort prediction based on grey models GM(1,1) and Verhulst. This method establishes models dynamically according to particular types of stage-effort sequences, and can adapt to particular development methodologies automatically by using a novel grey feedback mechanism. We evaluate the proposed method with a large-scale real-world software engineering dataset, and compare it with the linear regression method and the Kalman filter method, revealing that accuracy has been improved by at least 28% and 50%, respectively. The results indicate that the method can be effective and has considerable potential. We believe that stage predictions could be a useful complement to whole-project effort prediction methods.
dc.identifier.citationIEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part C: Applications and Reviews, vol.39(6), pp.647-658
dc.identifier.doi10.1109/TSMCC.2009.2020690
dc.identifier.issn1094-6977
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10292/2198
dc.publisherIEEE Computer Systems
dc.relation.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1109/TSMCC.2009.2020690
dc.rightsCopyright © 2009 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.
dc.rights.accessrightsOpenAccess
dc.subjectGrey prediction
dc.subjectSoftware project management
dc.subjectSoftware project stage-effort prediction
dc.subjectSystems
dc.titleIntegrate the GM(1,1) and Verhulst models to predict software stage effort
dc.typeJournal Article
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