Using historical data in stochastic estimation of software project duration
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National Advisory Committee on Computing Qualifications (NACCQ)
Abstract
This paper presents a framework for the representation of uncertainty in the estimates used to predict the duration of software design projects. The modelling framework utilises Monte Carlo simulation to compute the propagation of uncertainty in estimates towards the total project uncertainty and therefore gives a project manager the means to make informed decisions throughout the project life. The framework also provides a mechanism for accumulating project knowledge through the use of a historical database, allowing effort estimates to be informed by, or indeed upon, the outcome of previous projects.Description
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19th Annual Conference of the National Advisory Committee on Computing Qualifications (NACCQ'06, Wellington, New Zealand, pages 53 - 59