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The Impact of the April 2025 U.S. Tariff Announcement on Country-Level ETF Returns: The Roles of Global Uncertainty and Financial Integration

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Dissertation(1.03 MB)

Date

2026

Authors

Wen, Zhaoheng

Supervisor

Badshah, Ihsan
Ali, Sara

Item type

Thesis

Degree name

Master of Business

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Publisher

Auckland University of Technology

Abstract

This study investigates the global financial market impact of the April 2, 2025, United States tariff announcement using a large cross-country sample of internationally traded exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Treating the announcement as a global uncertainty shock, we employ an event-study framework combined with cross-sectional regressions to analyse abnormal returns (ARs) across countries, regions, sectors, and asset classes. We document significant negative cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) in global markets following the announcement, alongside pronounced cross-sectional heterogeneity. ETFs from countries with lower dependence on the United States, measured by exports to the U.S. relative to GDP, experience larger and more persistent losses, while ETFs from highly U.S.-dependent economies exhibit weaker and predominantly short-lived responses. At the regional level, China, Asia, and Africa show the strongest adverse reactions over extended event windows, whereas U.S. ETFs display comparatively muted ARs. Sectoral analysis indicates that globally integrated and cyclically sensitive industries, including materials, industrials, technology, energy, and financial services, experience the most severe and persistent valuation declines as uncertainty intensifies. Consumer-related sectors exhibit heterogeneous responses, with consumer defensive industries comparatively insulated and consumer cyclical and service-oriented sectors suffering sizable losses at longer horizons. Across asset classes, equity ETFs transition from short-run resilience to large and persistent negative ARs, while fixed-income ETFs display consistently positive abnormal performance relative to factor-model benchmarks, reflecting differences in risk exposure rather than uniformly positive raw returns. Taken together, the evidence indicates that the 2025 tariff announcement functioned as a global macro-financial shock transmitted primarily through uncertainty and financial integration channels rather than narrow bilateral trade effects. The findings highlight the importance of economic structure, sectoral composition, and asset-class characteristics in shaping global financial market responses to major policy interventions.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10292/20984

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Masters Dissertations