Probabilistic estimation of software project duration

Connor, AM
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Journal Article
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Computing and Information Technology Research and Education, New Zealand (CITRENZ).

This paper presents a framework for the representation of uncertainty in the estimates for software design projects for use throughout the entire project lifecycle. The framework is flexible in order to accommodate uncertainty in the project and utilises Monte Carlo simulation to compute the propagation of uncertainty in effort estimates towards the total project uncertainty and therefore gives a project manager the means to make informed decisions throughout the project life. The framework also provides a mechanism for accumulating project knowledge through the use of a historical database, allowing effort estimates to be informed by, or indeed based upon, the outcome of previous projects. Initial results using simulated data are presented and avenues for further work are discussed.

New Zealand Journal of Applied Computing & Information Technology, vol.11(1), pp.11 - 22
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The author(s) assign to CITRENZ and educational non-profit institutions a non-exclusive licence to use this document for personal use and in courses of instruction provided that the article is used in full and this copyright statement is reproduced. The author(s) also grant a non-exclusive licence to CITRENZ to publish this document in full on the World Wide Web (prime sites and mirrors) and in printed form within the Journal of Applied Computing and Information Technology. Authors retain their individual intellectual property rights. An Open Access Journal, DOAJ #22304398