Mikolić, ASteyerberg, EWPolinder, SWilson, LZeldovich, Mvon Steinbueche, NNewcombe, VFJMenon, DKvan der Naalt, JLingsma, HFMaas, AIRvan Klaveren, DÅkerlund, CAmrein, KAndelic, NAndreassen, LAnke, AAntoni, AAudibert, GAzouvi, PAzzolini, MLBartels, RBarzó, PBeauvais, RBeer, RBellander, BMBelli, ABenali, HBerardino, MBeretta, LBlaabjerg, MBragge, PBrazinova, ABrinck, VBrooker, JBrorsson, CBuki, ABullinger, MCabeleira, MCaccioppola, ACalappi, ECalvi, MRCameron, PCarbayo Lozano, GCarbonara, MCavallo, SChevallard, GChieregato, ACiterio, GClusmann, HCoburn, MColes, JCooper, JDCorreia, MČović, ACurry, NCzeiter, ECzosnyka, MFizelier, CDDark, PDawes, HDe Keyser, VDegos, VDella Corte, Fden Boogert, HDepreitere, BÐilvesi, ÐDixit, ADonoghue, EDreier, JDulière, GLErcole, AEsser, PEzer, EFabricius, MFeigin, VLFoks, KFrisvold, SFurmanov, AGagliardo, PGalanaud, DGantner, DGao, GGeorge, PGhuysen, AGiga, LGlocker, BGolubovic, JGomez, PAGratz, JGravesteijn, BGrossi, FGruen, RLGupta, DHaagsma, JAHaitsma, IHelbok, RHelseth, EHorton, LHuijben, J2023-11-082023-11-082023-08-16Journal of Neurotrauma, ISSN: 0897-7151 (Print); 1557-9042 (Online), Mary Ann Liebert Inc, 40(15-16), 1651-1670. doi: 10.1089/neu.2022.03200897-71511557-9042http://hdl.handle.net/10292/16900After mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI), a substantial proportion of individuals do not fully recover on the Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE) or experience persistent post-concussion symptoms (PPCS). We aimed to develop prognostic models for the GOSE and PPCS at 6 months after mTBI and to assess the prognostic value of different categories of predictors (clinical variables; questionnaires; computed tomography [CT]; blood biomarkers). From the Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury (CENTER-TBI) study, we included participants aged 16 or older with Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) 13-15. We used ordinal logistic regression to model the relationship between predictors and the GOSE, and linear regression to model the relationship between predictors and the Rivermead Post-concussion Symptoms Questionnaire (RPQ) total score. First, we studied a pre-specified Core model. Next, we extended the Core model with other clinical and sociodemographic variables available at presentation (Clinical model). The Clinical model was then extended with variables assessed before discharge from hospital: early post-concussion symptoms, CT variables, biomarkers, or all three categories (extended models). In a subset of patients mostly discharged home from the emergency department, the Clinical model was extended with 2-3–week post-concussion and mental health symptoms. Predictors were selected based on Akaike’s Information Criterion. Performance of ordinal models was expressed as a concordance index (C) and performance of linear models as proportion of variance explained (R2). Bootstrap validation was used to correct for optimism. We included 2376 mTBI patients with 6-month GOSE and 1605 patients with 6-month RPQ. The Core and Clinical models for GOSE showed moderate discrimination (C = 0.68 95% confidence interval 0.68 to 0.70 and C = 0.70[0.69 to 0.71], respectively) and injury severity was the strongest predictor. The extended models had better discriminative ability (C = 0.71[0.69 to 0.72] with early symptoms; 0.71[0.70 to 0.72] with CT variables or with blood biomarkers; 0.72[0.71 to 0.73] with all three categories). The performance of models for RPQ was modest (R2 = 4% Core; R2 = 9% Clinical), and extensions with early symptoms increased the R2 to 12%. The 2-3-week models had better performance for both outcomes in the subset of participants with these symptoms measured (C = 0.74 [0.71 to 0.78] vs. C = 0.63[0.61 to 0.67] for GOSE; R2 = 37% vs. 6% for RPQ). In conclusion, the models based on variables available before discharge have moderate performance for the prediction of GOSE and poor performance for the prediction of PPCS. Symptoms assessed at 2-3 weeks are required for better predictive ability of both outcomes. The performance of the proposed models should be examined in independent cohorts.http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0Glasgow Outcome Scale Extendedbiomarkersmild traumatic brain injurypost-concussion symptomspredictorsprognostic model5203 Clinical and Health Psychology52 PsychologyClinical ResearchTraumatic Brain Injury (TBI)Traumatic Head and Spine InjuryPhysical Injury - Accidents and Adverse EffectsNeurosciencesBrain Disorders3 Good Health and Well Being1103 Clinical Sciences1109 NeurosciencesNeurology & Neurosurgery3202 Clinical sciences3209 Neurosciences5202 Biological psychologyHumansBrain ConcussionPost-Concussion SyndromePrognosisBrain Injuries, TraumaticBiomarkersHumansBrain ConcussionPost-Concussion SyndromePrognosisBiomarkersBrain Injuries, TraumaticHumansBrain ConcussionPost-Concussion SyndromePrognosisBrain Injuries, TraumaticBiomarkersJournal ArticleOpenAccess10.1089/neu.2022.0320