Ma, RuiMarshall, Ben RNguyen, Nhut HVisaltanachoti, Nuttawat2025-05-152025-05-152024-04-13Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, ISSN: 0927-538X (Print), Elsevier BV, 85, 102363-102363. doi: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.1023630927-538Xhttp://hdl.handle.net/10292/19204We document several aspects of New Zealand's long-term equity returns over the 156 years from 1867 to 2022. Remaining invested in the market has been an effective strategy. Investors with a 5-year (20-year) horizon lost money just 10% (<1%) of the time in nominal terms. Equities outperformed bonds in periods of moderate and high inflation, although bonds generated superior returns in deflationary periods. Returns over 5- and 10-year horizons can be predicted with a three-component model based on the “Buffett indicator”.Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in (see Citation). Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. The definitive version was published in (see Citation). The original publication is available at (see Publisher's Version).3502 Banking, Finance and Investment35 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services1501 Accounting, Auditing and Accountability1502 Banking, Finance and InvestmentFinance3502 Banking, finance and investmentJournal ArticleOpenAccess10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.102363