Testing for Structural Changes in the Wagner’s Law for a Sample of East Asian Countries

Kumar, S
Cao, Z
Item type
Journal Article
Degree name
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Springer (part of Springer Nature)

This paper examines the Wagner’s Law for a sample of East Asian countries (China, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea) by utilizing the structural break methods viz., Gregory and Hansen (J Econom 70:99–126, 1996a; Oxf Bull Econ Stat 58:555–559, 1996b), Carrion-i-Silvestre and Sanso (Oxf Bull Econ Stat 68:623–646, 2006) and Bai and Perron (Econometrica 66:47–78, 1998; J Appl Econom 18:1–22, 2003). We find that there exists weak cointegrating relationship between the log of nominal public expenditure as a share of nominal GDP to the log of real per capita GDP. However, we find support for the Wagner’s Law when the relationship is extended to include a measure of the population structure—the dependency ratio. Our findings support the explanations suggested by Durevall and Henrekson (J Public Econ 95(7–8):708–722, 2011).

Government spending; Dependency ratio; Cointegration; Structural breaks
Empirical Economics (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-019-01686-5
Rights statement
An author may self-archive an author-created version of his/her article on his/her own website and or in his/her institutional repository. He/she may also deposit this version on his/her funder’s or funder’s designated repository at the funder’s request or as a result of a legal obligation, provided it is not made publicly available until 12 months after official publication. He/ she may not use the publisher's PDF version, which is posted on www.springerlink.com, for the purpose of self-archiving or deposit. Furthermore, the author may only post his/her version provided acknowledgement is given to the original source of publication and a link is inserted to the published article on Springer's website. The link must be accompanied by the following text: "The final publication is available at www.springerlink.com”. (Please also see Publisher’s Version and Citation).