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dc.contributor.authorRees, GHen_NZ
dc.contributor.authorCrampton, Pen_NZ
dc.contributor.authorGauld, Ren_NZ
dc.contributor.authorMacDonell, Sen_NZ
dc.date.accessioned2020-06-15T03:29:23Z
dc.date.available2020-06-15T03:29:23Z
dc.date.copyright2020-05-15en_NZ
dc.identifier.citationBMC Health Serv Res 20, 429 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12913-020-05304-4
dc.identifier.issn1472-6963en_NZ
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10292/13396
dc.description.abstractBACKGROUND: A goal of health workforce planning is to have the most appropriate workforce available to meet prevailing needs. However, this is a difficult task when considering integrated care, as future workforces may require different numbers, roles and skill mixes than those at present. With this uncertainty and large variations in what constitutes integrated care, current health workforce policy and planning processes are poorly placed to respond. In order to address this issue, we present a scenario-based workforce planning approach. METHODS: We propose a novel mixed methods design, incorporating content analysis, scenario methods and scenario analysis through the use of a policy Delphi. The design prescribes that data be gathered from workforce documents and studies that are used to develop scenarios, which are then assessed by a panel of suitably qualified people. Assessment consists of evaluating scenario desirability, feasibility and validity and includes a process for indicating policy development opportunities. RESULTS: We confirmed our method using data from New Zealand's Older Persons Health sector and its workforce. Three scenarios resulted, one that reflects a normative direction and two alternatives that reflect key sector workforce drivers and trends. One of these, based on alternative assumptions, was found to be more desirable by the policy Delphi panel. The panel also found a number of favourable policy proposals. CONCLUSIONS: The method shows that through applying techniques that have been developed to accommodate uncertainty, health workforce planning can benefit when confronting issues associated with integrated care. The method contributes to overcoming significant weaknesses of present health workforce planning approaches by identifying a wider range of plausible futures and thematic kernels for policy development. The use of scenarios provides a means to contemplate future situations and provides opportunities for policy rehearsal and reflection.en_NZ
dc.publisherBMC
dc.relation.urihttps://bmchealthservres.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12913-020-05304-4#Fun
dc.rightsThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.
dc.titleRethinking Workforce Planning for Integrated Care: Using Scenario Analysis to Facilitate Policy Developmenten_NZ
dc.typeJournal Article
dc.rights.accessrightsOpenAccessen_NZ
dc.identifier.doi10.1186/s12913-020-05304-4en_NZ
aut.relation.issue1en_NZ
aut.relation.startpage429
aut.relation.volume20en_NZ
pubs.elements-id376058
aut.relation.journalBMC health services researchen_NZ


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