When a Foundation Crumbles: Forecasting Forest Dynamics Following the Decline of the Foundation Species Tsuga Canadensis

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aut.relation.articlenumber7en_NZ
aut.relation.endpagen/a
aut.relation.journalEcosphereen_NZ
aut.relation.startpagee01893
aut.relation.volume8en_NZ
aut.researcherCase, Bradley
dc.contributor.authorCase, BSen_NZ
dc.contributor.authorBuckley, HLen_NZ
dc.contributor.authorBarker-Plotkin, AAen_NZ
dc.contributor.authorOrwig, DAen_NZ
dc.contributor.authorEllison, AMen_NZ
dc.date.accessioned2019-02-04T03:36:15Z
dc.date.available2019-02-04T03:36:15Z
dc.date.copyright2017en_NZ
dc.date.issued2017en_NZ
dc.description.abstractIn the forests of northeastern North America, invasive insects and pathogens are causing major declines in some tree species and a subsequent reorganization of associated forest communities. Using observations and experiments to investigate the consequences of such declines are hampered because trees are long‐lived. Simulation models can provide a means to forecast possible futures based on different scenarios of tree species decline, death, and removal. Such modeling is particularly urgent for species such as eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis), a foundation species in many northeastern forest regions that is declining due to the hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae). Here, we used an individual‐based forest simulator, SORTIE‐ND, to forecast changes in forest communities in Central Massachusetts over the next 200 yr under a range of scenarios: a no‐adelgid, status quo scenario; partial resistance of hemlock to the adelgid; adelgid irruption and total hemlock decline over 25 yr, adelgid irruption and salvage logging of hemlock trees; and two scenarios of preemptive logging of hemlock and hemlock/white pine. We applied the model to six study plots comprising a range of initial species mixtures, abundances, and levels of hemlock dominance. Simulations indicated that eastern white pine, and to a lesser extent black birch and American beech, would gain most in relative abundance and basal area following hemlock decline. The relative dominance of these species depended on initial conditions and the amount of hemlock mortality, and their combined effect on neighborhood‐scale community dynamics. Simulated outcomes were little different whether hemlock died out gradually due to the adelgid or disappeared rapidly following logging. However, if eastern hemlock were to become partially resistant to the adelgid, hemlock would be able to retain its dominance despite substantial losses of basal area. Our modeling highlights the complexities associated with secondary forest succession due to ongoing hemlock decline and loss. We emphasize the need both for a precautionary approach in deciding between management intervention or simply doing nothing in these declining hemlock forests, and for clear aims and understanding regarding desired community‐ and ecosystem‐level outcomes.
dc.identifier.citationEcosphere 8(7): e01893.10.1002/ecs2.1893
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/ecs2.1893en_NZ
dc.identifier.issn2150-8925en_NZ
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10292/12221
dc.publisherEcological Society of America
dc.relation.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.1893en_NZ
dc.rights© 2017 Case et al. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
dc.rights.accessrightsOpenAccessen_NZ
dc.subjectCommunity dynamics; Composition; Decline; Eastern hemlock; Forecasting; Northeastern forests; Preemptive logging; Resistance; Simulation; SORTIE-ND; Structure; Woolly adelgid
dc.titleWhen a Foundation Crumbles: Forecasting Forest Dynamics Following the Decline of the Foundation Species Tsuga Canadensisen_NZ
dc.typeJournal Article
pubs.elements-id295944
pubs.organisational-data/AUT
pubs.organisational-data/AUT/Health & Environmental Science
pubs.organisational-data/AUT/Health & Environmental Science/Applied Science
pubs.organisational-data/AUT/Health & Environmental Science/School of Science
pubs.organisational-data/AUT/PBRF
pubs.organisational-data/AUT/PBRF/PBRF Health and Environmental Sciences
pubs.organisational-data/AUT/PBRF/PBRF Health and Environmental Sciences/HA Science 2018 PBRF
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