Global, Regional, and National Incidence, Prevalence, and Years Lived With Disability for 301 Acute and Chronic Diseases and Injuries in 188 Countries, 1990-2013: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Simple item page
aut.relation.endpage800
aut.relation.issue9995en_NZ
aut.relation.journalThe Lanceten_NZ
aut.relation.startpage743
aut.relation.volume386en_NZ
dark.contributor.authorVos, Ten_NZ
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dark.contributor.authorRahimi, Ken_NZ
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dark.contributor.authorWarouw, TSen_NZ
dark.contributor.authorWeichenthal, Sen_NZ
dark.contributor.authorWeiderpass, Een_NZ
dark.contributor.authorWeintraub, RGen_NZ
dark.contributor.authorWerdecker, Aen_NZ
dark.contributor.authorWessells, KRen_NZ
dark.contributor.authorWesterman, Ren_NZ
dark.contributor.authorWilkinson, JDen_NZ
dark.contributor.authorWilliams, HCen_NZ
dark.contributor.authorWilliams, TNen_NZ
dark.contributor.authorWoldeyohannes, SMen_NZ
dark.contributor.authorWolfe, CDAen_NZ
dark.contributor.authorWong, JQen_NZ
dark.contributor.authorWong, Hen_NZ
dark.contributor.authorWoolf, ADen_NZ
dark.contributor.authorWright, JLen_NZ
dark.contributor.authorWurtz, Ben_NZ
dark.contributor.authorXu, Gen_NZ
dark.contributor.authorYang, Gen_NZ
dark.contributor.authorYano, Yen_NZ
dark.contributor.authorYenesew, MAen_NZ
dark.contributor.authorYentur, GKen_NZ
dark.contributor.authorYip, Pen_NZ
dark.contributor.authorYonemoto, Nen_NZ
dark.contributor.authorYoon, S-Jen_NZ
dark.contributor.authorYounis, Men_NZ
dark.contributor.authorYu, Cen_NZ
dark.contributor.authorKim, KYen_NZ
dark.contributor.authorZaki, MESen_NZ
dark.contributor.authorZhang, Yen_NZ
dark.contributor.authorZhao, Zen_NZ
dark.contributor.authorZhao, Yen_NZ
dark.contributor.authorZhu, Jen_NZ
dark.contributor.authorZonies, Den_NZ
dark.contributor.authorZunt, JRen_NZ
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dark.contributor.authorMurray, CJLen_NZ
dc.date.accessioned2019-10-17T03:04:14Z
dc.date.available2019-10-17T03:04:14Z
dc.date.copyright2015en_NZ
dc.date.issued2015en_NZ
dc.description.abstractBackground Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2·4 billion and 1·6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537·6 million in 1990 to 764·8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114·87 per 1000 people to 110·31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.en_NZ
dc.identifier.citationThe Lancet, 386(9995), 743-800.
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60692-4en_NZ
dc.identifier.issn0140-6736en_NZ
dc.identifier.issn1474-547Xen_NZ
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10292/12916
dc.languageengen_NZ
dc.publisherElsevieren_NZ
dc.relation.urihttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673615606924?via%3Dihub
dc.rightsCopyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in (see Citation). Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. The definitive version was published in (see Citation). The original publication is available at (see Publisher's Version).
dc.rights.accessrightsOpenAccessen_NZ
dc.titleGlobal, Regional, and National Incidence, Prevalence, and Years Lived With Disability for 301 Acute and Chronic Diseases and Injuries in 188 Countries, 1990-2013: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013en_NZ
dc.typeJournal Article
pubs.elements-id189980
pubs.organisational-data/AUT
pubs.organisational-data/AUT/Health & Environmental Science
pubs.organisational-data/AUT/Health & Environmental Science/Health Faculty Office
pubs.organisational-data/AUT/Health & Environmental Science/Public Health & Psych Studies
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