A novel evolving clustering algorithm with polynomial regression for chaotic time-series prediction

Date
2009
Authors
Widiputra, H
Kho, H
Lukas
Pears, R
Kasabov, N
Supervisor
Item type
Conference Contribution
Degree name
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Abstract

Time-series prediction has been a very well researched topic in recent studies. Some popular approaches to this problem are the traditional statistical methods e.g. multiple linear regression and moving average, and neural network with the Multi Layer Perceptron which has shown its supremacy in time-series prediction. In this study, we used a different approach based on evolving clustering algorithm with polynomial regressions to find repeating local patterns in a time-series data. To illustrate chaotic time-series data we have taken into account the use of stock price data from Indonesian stock exchange market and currency exchange rate data. In addition, we have also conducted a benchmark test using the Mackey Glass data set. Results showed that the algorithm offers a considerably high accuracy in time-series prediction and could also reveal repeating patterns of movement from the past.

Description
Keywords
Evolving clustering algorithm , Polynomial regression , Chaotic time-series data , Discovery
Source
Neural Information Processing: Lecture Notes in Computer Science Volume 5864, 2009, pp 114-121
Publisher's version
Rights statement
An author may self-archive an author-created version of his/her article on his/her own website and or in his/her institutional repository. He/she may also deposit this version on his/her funder’s or funder’s designated repository at the funder’s request or as a result of a legal obligation, provided it is not made publicly available until 12 months after official publication. He/ she may not use the publisher's PDF version, which is posted on www.springerlink.com, for the purpose of self-archiving or deposit. Furthermore, the author may only post his/her version provided acknowledgement is given to the original source of publication and a link is inserted to the published article on Springer's website. The link must be accompanied by the following text: "The final publication is available at www.springerlink.com”. (Please also see Publisher’s Version and Citation).